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Харьковский Национальный Университет им. В.Н.Каразина, Украина
Цель данной статьи рассмотреть необходимость системного изучения взаимосвязи номинальной и реальной динамики и ее учета в экономической политике.
Ключевые слова: номинальная и реальная экономическая динамика, экономическая политика.
The issue of this article is to discuss the need of systematic study of the relationship between nominal and real economic dynamics and forms of its registration in economic policy.
Keywords:nominal and real economic dynamics, economic policy.
Economic statistics uses the indicators of both nominal and real economic dynamics. For example, it distinguishes between nominal and real GDP, wages and incomes. Some indicators are calculated in the analysis of economic situation and are taken into account in the solution to some economic situations (for example, the real interest rate, real exchange rate). At the same time, a number of key indicators (revenues and expenditures, emissions, deposits, loans, etc.) in the statistics are not assessed in real terms. Meanwhile, their real value changes and this affects the economic status of economic entities and population.
The issue of systemic reflection of the economic dynamics as opposed to nominal is not raised and should be developed in economic literature. The concepts of nominal and real dynamics, the range of key economic indicators which requires systematic assessment of the real dynamics, etc. have not been defined.
The purpose of the article is to determine the nature and form of nominal and real dynamics, justify the need for a systematic approach to the study of their relationship.
There is a whole system of indicators that reflects the economic condition of the economy. These indicators can be analyzed both individually, and in groups. An example is a group of indicators such as employment, consumer spending, domestic production and inventories, housing and construction, international trade, price, productivity and wages. Each group has internal components.
These economic indicators are of formal character: they are published in the official materials at a given time on the websites of the Ministries of Labour, Commerce and the National Bank, the housing and construction companies, real estate agents, agencies, Conference Board, ABC News, Cambridge Credit Counseling Corp, Research Center survey public Opinion (University of Michigan), etc. Some have more impact, others have less impact on the state of the market: the price of stocks, bonds and the dollar. Together they reflect the general picture of the economy, its state and dynamics.
The most general indicator is the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP - is the total value of all goods and services produced in the country at one period of time. In fact, it is the number of goods and services produced for final consumption for the year multiplied by their price. With the advent of the price category there is a need to consider factors such as inflation which characterizes the price dynamics. According to B. Baumol, there are two main approaches to the explanation of inflation [1, p.224]
- The monetarist view, according to which rapid increase in prices is due to the excessive increase in money supply;
- Keynesian point of view, coming from the fact that the basis of inflation is an increase in overall demand for goods and services. In essence, the principle of explanation is the same as it relates to the amount of money in circulation, but to the fore, aggregate demand cannot be satisfied with aggregate supply.
Some degree of uncertainty relies on economics. Existing econometric models take into account this factor. But any model is based on the assumption of the constancy of certain basic factors. For example, in the model of economic growth it is assumed that the increase of population (labor force) is positive and is usually proportional to its size [4, p. 29]. As noted by D. North, incomplete information and imperfect feedback are at the heart of a catastrophic nature of the uncertainty [3, p. 43].
A systematic approach to the nature and forms of nominal and real dynamics involves their prediction, and hence the accounting of uncertainty factor. In the literature, methods of dynamic simulation under uncertainty using a decision tree are developed [5, p.1-53].
We now attempt to define the nominal and real dynamics. The basis for this difference will be movement of goods and services in their natural, cost and price forms. The cost is understood here as the spatial localization of the socially necessary time and money as a representative of an equivalent value in exchange [2, p. 97, 137]. This approach makes it possible to distinguish between price and the cost dynamics that are usually identified. The price in reality is the monetary expression of goods value. But just as price in real gold money may vary due to changes in the value of money without changing the value of goods, in today's economy the cost presented in the form of sign or ideal money form can be changed without changing the value of the goods. Social-time theory of value and representation theory of prices allows us to understand how modern economy combines two opposing processes (reduction of cost and price increases), while the price is the monetary expression of value.
In accordance with this approach under nominal dynamics in this study we understand the price changes in the expression of economic values, and a real change in the volume and value of manufactured goods. For example, we know that in the current year company A’s income from the TV sets sale grew up to 220 million dollars compared with 200 million last year. It means that the company has a 10% increase. However, these figures do not indicate direct nature of this growth, which, as we have seen, may be nominal and real. What has really happened? Will the increase in sales volume, that is, the number of TV sets sold (the real dynamics), or increase prices (nominal dynamics) and, consequently, an increase in real monetary terms actually be zero? To answer this question we should take into account not only production data at the beginning and the end of the period, but also the general prices level.
The difference between nominal and real dynamics can be considered as an example of such an economic indicator, as the exchange rate. So, if we raised the issue of goods prices, it is necessary to refer to those monetary units in which the price is displayed. The nominal exchange rate is the price of the currency, as expressed in the currencies of other nations. In its turn, the real exchange rate characterizes the ratio in which the goods of one country can be sold in exchange for the goods of another country, and, thus, reflects the country's price competitiveness in international trade.
Such imbalances need to be studied systematically and economic policies should be corected directing the economic process in a constructive way.
Crucial to the assessment of economic processes is a study of gross domestic product dynamics (GDP) in nominal and real terms.
In the literature there is no well-founded definition of real and nominal dynamics. Typically, in the real sector under real dynamics of change we mean the volume of merchandise supply (output expressed in current prices adjusted for price changes). However, independent reality is the value, the dynamics of which does not coincide with the dynamics of the volume or the price dynamics. Against this background, the nominal dynamics can be defined as the price changes in economic variables expression, and the real - as a change in volume and value of manufactured goods.
The methodological basis of the proposed approach to the study of nominal and real economic dynamics may serve a temporary social theory of value and representation theory of money, allowing to theoretically reproduce contradictory movement of natural, cost and nominal values.
Further direction of this approach is development of the system of indicators distinguishing between real and nominal dynamics to show the real economic processes and changes in their relations in the systemic way.