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Justification of Trends When Cyclic Variations of Indicators

 Justification of Trends When Cyclic Variations of Indicators Justification of Trends When Cyclic Variations of Indicators Justification of Trends When Cyclic Variations of Indicators Justification of Trends When Cyclic Variations of Indicators
Aleksandr Kryukov, доктор экономических наук, профессор

Сибирский федеральный университет, Россия

Крюкова Ирина, преподаватель

СШ №10 МО г. Красноярска

Участник первенства: Национальное первенство по научной аналитике - "Россия";

Открытое Европейско-Азиатское первенство по научной аналитике;

This article  speak  about reflection  of time indexes  of progress  and it give  estimate , which  describe  the direction  of economic  progress  of organizations

Keywords:  Reflection.  Time indexes .  Progress.  Estimate. Direction  of economic  progress .

 

There are cycle  processes  in to economic. It’s necessary  them  test for admission management solutions. For this affect is needed to use  concept of trend  of senses of indexes of indicators.  There are offer next approaches to use.

, then it can consider , that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as positive and strong.

, then it can consider , that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as positive, but weak.

,then it can consider , that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as simply positive.

, then it can consider ,  that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as negative and strong.

, then it can consider , that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as negative but weak.

, then it can consider , that  trend of change s of concept of economic development  of organizations as simply negative.

Border (limit) between  strong or weak of trends  of negative or  positive  characters are needed mathematical estimate.

Trend is stable variations of fluctuating operational indicators of organization. It is often required with measured fluctuations of values of its economic condition indicators to set limits of the trend of enterprise operation indicators growth theoretically [1]. To determine them in a first approximation we assume that the life cycle of organization is sinusoidal. Peak values of indicators in this cycle are Аm.. It is measured average values of i-indicators - . It is required to set a coefficient of proportionality (coefficient of the trend – k, where k > 1) among values , if growth of indicators is observed. In addition it is satisfied a relation that maximum of values of i-indicator in the previous cycle is not more than minimum of values of i-indicator in the consequent cycle (Fig. 1).

Let  

Construct the following (Fig. 1).

Draw a tangent – ВА between the points  and the line of average values of i-indicator – ML through the points  . From the point  drop a perpendicular – AF to ML. From the point М drop the perpendicular MN to DN (line ). From the point N draw the line NK parallel to ML, and drop from the point D to NK the perpendicular DK.

From constructed right-angled triangle ?MDN express sin?:

In this case:

Consider the similar triangles (fig.1):

Taking into account that   include values sin ? from the equation (2), and cos ? from the formula (6). Set the constraints for tg ? from the expression (4).

Get the inequation after transformations:

In this case trend will have stable growth when cyclic sinusoidal changing i-indicator, provided its each value on consequent measures will satisfy the in equation (9).

 

References:

  1. Kor n G. Guide – book of mathematic / G. Kor n,  T.Kor n .- M.: Fizmatgiz, 1985.- 450 p. 
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Ваша оценка: Нет Средняя: 7 (6 голосов)
Комментарии: 3

Кайда Светлана Владимировна

Цикличность-одна из важнейших проблем экономики. Статья написана грамотно и заслуживает высокой оценки. Спасибо авторам!

Артамонова Елена Николаевна

Envisioning the Future: an effective organization has a clear sense of itself and where it wants to go. It can clearly articulate its direction, purpose, goals and rationale for the actions it is pursuing.

Выходец Александр Михайлович

Для экономического прогресса в конкретной организации и в конретных условиях производстьвенно-технологического процесса безусловно необходимо знать показатели времени.Для этого необходимо использовать понятие тренда чувств индексов показателей. Этот механизм был прменен авторами и сделано достаточно успешно. Метематическое доказательство безупречно.
Комментарии: 3

Кайда Светлана Владимировна

Цикличность-одна из важнейших проблем экономики. Статья написана грамотно и заслуживает высокой оценки. Спасибо авторам!

Артамонова Елена Николаевна

Envisioning the Future: an effective organization has a clear sense of itself and where it wants to go. It can clearly articulate its direction, purpose, goals and rationale for the actions it is pursuing.

Выходец Александр Михайлович

Для экономического прогресса в конкретной организации и в конретных условиях производстьвенно-технологического процесса безусловно необходимо знать показатели времени.Для этого необходимо использовать понятие тренда чувств индексов показателей. Этот механизм был прменен авторами и сделано достаточно успешно. Метематическое доказательство безупречно.
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