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SPREADING OF THE NATURAL DISASTERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE TO AZERBAIJAN

Автор Доклада: 
D. Nurmammadova
Награда: 
SPREADING OF THE NATURAL DISASTERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE TO AZERBAIJAN

SPREADING OF THE NATURAL DISASTERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE TO AZERBAIJAN

Dunyakhanim Nurmammadova, student
Baku State University

ABSTRACT

In recent times the world has witnessed climate change and natural disasters of gigantic proportions. This is just the beginning of a 10-15 year destructive phase which will increase in intensity. The root cause behind these weird weather patterns and destruction is primarily spiritual.
Terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors contribute to climate change. Various models predict significant temperature rises for the planet in the near future. Complex anthropogenic interactions appear to contribute cumulatively and to accelerate the on-going natural process of global warming. Extensive deforestation of large surface areas of the earth has resulted in significant changes in the water and radiation balance of the planet. Other apparent adverse anthropogenic impacts on climate include land-originating pollution due to increases in urbanization and industrialization and increases in the use of fossil fuels. The resulting global warming and the rising sea level will have serious short and long-term impacts on human and animal life on our planet.Certain amount of damage may be substantially reduced via efficient measures by designing geo-information models during natural disasters and their further development. Therefore creation of digital mapping and geo-information models in regards to natural disaster occurring in Azerbaijan is one of the top priorities of our time.

Keywords:natural disaster,anthropogenic interactions,climate climate changes,geographical information syatem

A natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard (e.g., flood, tornado, hurricane, volcanic eruption, earthquake, heatwave, or landslide). It leads to financial, environmental or human losses. The resulting loss depends on the vulnerability of the affected population to resist the hazard, also called their resilience This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability
A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas. The term natural has consequently been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement. A concrete example of the division between a natural hazard and a natural disaster is that the, 1902 Shamakhi earthquake was a disaster , whereas earthquakes are a hazard.
An earthquake is a sudden shake of the Earth's crust caused by the tectonic plates colliding. The vibrations may vary in magnitude. The underground point of origin of the earthquake is called the "focus". The point directly above the focus on the surface is called the"epicenter". Earthquakes by themselves rarely kill people or wildlife. It is usually the secondary events that they trigger, such as building collapse, fires, tsunamis (seismic sea waves) and volcanoes, that are actually the human disaster. Many of these could possibly be avoided by better construction, safety systems, early warning and evacuation planning.Earthquakes are caused by the discharge of energy accumulated along geologic fault.
The earthquake happened in Shamakhi situated in the south-eastern part of Greater Caucasus Mountains wins the first place for its repetition and destroying force in Azerbaijan. The force of the earthquake in here reaches to 9-10 intensity. The seismic zone with 9-10 intensity includes the around of Shamakhi, around Zangazur mountain, but to the seismic zone with 8 intensity includes the south hangs of Greater Caucasus Mountains, around of Ganja city, the south-eastern hangs of Smaller Caucasus Mountains, thus all Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanoes can cause widespread destruction and consequent disaster through several ways. The effects include the volcanic eruption itself that may cause harm following the explosion of the volcano or the fall of rock. Second, lava may be produced during the eruption of a volcano. As it leaves the volcano, the lava destroys many buildings and plants it encounters. Third, volcanic ash generally meaning the cooled ash - may form a cloud, and settle thickly in nearby locations. When mixed with water this forms a concrete-like material. In sufficient quantity ash may cause roofs to collapse under its weight but even small quantities will harm humans if inhaled. Since the ash has the consistency of ground glass it causes abrasion damage to moving parts such as engines. The main killer of humans in the immediate surroundings of a volcanic eruption is the pyroclastic flows, which consist of a cloud of hot volcanic ash which builds up in the air above the volcano and rushes down the slopes when the eruption no longer supports the lifting of the gases.
One of the mud volcanoes differing for its bigness in the world and as well as in Azerbaijan is Lokbatan mud volcano located in the distance of 15 km south – west from Baku city, on the coast of the Caspian Sea. The height of the flame torch reaches to 250-300 m during the eruption. The people living in the territories near the mud volcanoes must know that they may undergo to the influence of the mud volcanoes. It must be taken into consideration that, the volcano turns out the gases harmful for the human organism while erupting.
It must be prohibited to use the mud volcanoes in Gobustan for other purposes except the medical and tourism purposes, because their territory declared as reservation.
Blizzards
Blizzards are severe winter storms characterized by low temperature, strong winds, and heavy snow. The difference between a blizzard and a snow storm is the strength of the wind. To be a considered a blizzard, the storm must have winds in excess of 35 miles per hour, it should reduce the visibility to 1/4 miles, and must last for a prolonged period of 3 hours or more. Ground blizzards require high winds to stir up snow that has already fallen, rather than fresh snowfall. Blizzards have a negative impact on local economics and can terminate the visibility in regions where snowfall is rare.
Land Slides and Flood
The hill slopes are prone to land slides, landslips, rockslides and soil creep. These hazardous features have hampered the over all progress of the region as they obstruct the roads and flow of traffic, break communication, block flowing water in stream and create temporary reservoirs and also bring down lot of soil cover and thus add enormous silt and gravel to the streams. These are of two types, first as slides due to natural factors (These slides are mainly due to geological, tectonic (Thrust, Fault, Seismic Zone, Joints and Fracture Zone and Sheer Zone), additional moisture percolation, surface water percolation and slopes more than 35°.) and second as slides induced by man and his activities (These are induced by human activity in the form of engineering constructions, massive deforestation and erroneous agricultural practices on barren hill slopes, road building , unscientific quarrying etc. A few land slides of the district e.g.,
Because of the increase in the population and the constructional activities, the frequency of landslides and lands subsidence has increased. Heavy construction work coupled with the lack of planning for water outlet; increase water seepage culminating in the land slides. Huge amount of explosives used in construction works of road have adversely affected the ecosystem of the region and the stability of stabilized mountain slopes.
The floods in Azerbaijan mainly happens in the bottom streams of the Kur and Araz rivers. The level of the water in these rivers begins to rise at the end of March, in April. The number of the population is more than 1 million in the bottom streams of Kur and Araz river, the settlements here located in the distance of 1-3 km. sometimes the villages join with each other and form settling system. The population of the region centers such as Yevlakh, Zardab, Shirvan, Salyan, Neftchala and of the cities increases quickly and are misappropriated quickly in the territories. The forthcoming flood can create great calamities every time.
Real flood danger in winter month arised in the territory of Azerbaijan in December of 2002 and in the beginning of 2003 for the first time in the last century, some territories with 10 thousand hectares planting areas in the territories of Kur coast stayed under water.
Climate changes.
Climate changes, global warming and a rising sea level appear to have serious adverse impacts on human and animal life on our planet and are the cause of great concern. The effect of global warming on weather patterns is frequently blamed for an apparent increase in weather-related disasters such as windstorms and hurricanes, among others. Climate changes result from both natural and anthropogenic factors. Stressors caused by such factors can affect marine resources in unpredictable ways. The effects can be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. More frequently they are harmful. Although little can be done to mitigate the adverse effects of natural climate change factors, much can be done to control the additional stress caused by anthropogenic contributions.
To account for long-term effects and to ensure healthy and productive ocean and land environments, it is important to properly account for the impact of climate change and to determine the causes. The following is a brief analysis of both natural and anthropogenic drivers contributing to climate change such as global warming and the associated sea level rise. Also provided is a brief overview of necessary actions that must be taken to protect and properly manage the resources of our planet and to asses and mitigate the effects of climate-related disasters.
ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
There is new evidence indicating that anthropogenic sources contribute significantly to climate change and accelerate the on-going process of natural global warming. Extensive deforestation of large surface areas of the earth has resulted in significant changes in the water and radiation balance of the planet. Other adverse anthropogenic impacts on climate include land-originating pollution due to urbanization and industrialization and increases in the use of fossil fuels - the latter releasing gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and methane, among others. Chlorofluoro-carbons (CFCs) are believed to contribute significantly to the warming process.
The need to evaluate the effects of human activities on climate has been addressed. It led to the formation of international organizations such as the U. N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to international agreements as the Kyoto Protocol and the Berlin Mandate. According to the UN-sponsored evaluation, there is strong evidence that the increased concentrations of anthropogenically-generated gases in the atmosphere are suspected to be the human activity drivers that accelerate the natural trend of global warming and contribute to an accelerated climatic change. The UN report clearly states that global warming is a real problem, which is getting progressively worse. To what extent these gases contribute to the Greenhouse Effect and to climate change is not yet adequately known. Therefore, it must be first determined whether the apparent climate change and global warming result from natural or anthropogenic factors. Failure to account for the causes will compromise management efforts to reduce the adverse impact of future climate change. Although there is not yet sufficient information about the natural climate change, nevertheless the new estimates of warming pose a risk of devastating consequences in the near future for our planet.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS. Additionally, global warming appears to affect significantly the weather patterns of our planet. The extent of this influence cannot be accurately determined. In recent decades, there has been an apparent increase in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and storms and in the losses of life and property due to weather-related disasters. Other man-made or natural disasters have also taken a greater toll in recent years. However, it is not known with certainty if the higher losses can be attributed to a higher frequency of such disasters or simply to excessive development and increased population density along vulnerable coastal areas of our planet. Certainly, there have been major demographic shifts and greater concentration of populations in urban areas around the world. Mega cities have emerged along coastal areas, often without adequate planning or assessment of disaster risks. Also, better coverage of the impact of disasters by global media networks has resulted in increased awareness of disaster impacts. Nevertheless, it is worth reviewing the possible effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of disasters, particularly those that are weather-related.
INCREASES IN FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY OF NATURAL WEATHER-RELATED AND MAN-MADE DISASTERS. In spite of mitigation efforts, losses due to global warming and weather related disasters will continue to increase because of continuing population growth and the increase of the concentration of growth in vulnerable areas such as coastal regions and flood plains. Other natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis have also resulted in increased losses - quite possibly for the same reasons. For example the percentage of earthquakes causing 1,000 + fatalities has increased by 10% causing approximately 1.4 million deaths since 1910.
Continuing global warming can be expected to contribute significantly to disasters. For example, a new study has concluded that the Southwest Asian monsoons have gotten stronger over the past 400 years and might continue to intensify as a result of global warming. In recent years, weather-related disasters such as heavy rains, floods and flash floods, have affected the lives of thousands in Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, China, Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Turkey, Costa Rica, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Somalia, Ghana, Morocco, Togo and South Africa. Hurricanes and typhoons in the Eastern United States, Bahamas, Antigua, Barbados, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Philippines, Vietnam, Madagascar and elsewhere have left thousands of people dead, injured or homeless. Major flooding, - even in mountain areas high in the Himalayas - could occur where nearly 50 glacial lakes could burst their banks and flood the valleys below.
Man-made disasters have also taken a heavier toll in recent years. The continuous population growth has disturbed the delicate balance between ecosystems on our planet. Pollution of the atmosphere and of the seas, destruction of the rain forests, fires burning out of control, alterations of sensitive ecosystems, destruction of the ozone layer, have created climatic changes that we do not fully comprehend. Similarly, man-made disasters such as chemical spills and industrial accidents have polluted rivers and watersheds in Rwanda, Guyana, Eastern Ukraine, Slovenia and elsewhere. Industrial wastes have heavily polluted the drinking water supply of more than two million people endangering their health. Other man-made disasters associated with industrial accidents, civil strife, wars, and the use of weapons of mass destruction, not only present the greatest danger for humanity, but may also have a long-term cumulative effect on the earth's climate. The trend is clear, weather related and complex man-made disasters are increasing in frequency and severity in various parts of the world. Their impact on the environment and on climate cannot be overlooked.

Natural disasters in the Caspian Sea.
Hydrological characteristics.
Iran's Northern Caspian Hyrcanian mixed forests is created by the moisture captured from the Caspian sea and the Alborz mountain range of Iran, Gilan.
The Caspian has characteristics common to both seas and lakes. It is often listed as the world's largest lake, although it is not a freshwater lake. The Caspian became landlocked about 5.5 million years ago due to plate tectonics. The Volga River (about 80% of the inflow) and the Ural River discharge into the Caspian Sea, but it has no natural outflow other than by evaporation. Thus the Caspian ecosystem is a closed basin, with its own sea level history that is independent of the eustatic level of the world's oceans. The level of the Caspian has fallen and risen, often rapidly, many times over the centuries. Some Russian historians claim that a medieval rising of the Caspian, perhaps caused by the Amu Darya changing its inflow to the Caspian from the 13th century to the 16th century, caused the coastal towns of Khazaria, such as Atil, to flood. In 2004, the water level was -28 metres, or 28 metres (92 ft) below sea level.
Over the centuries, Caspian Sea levels have changed in synchronicity with the estimated discharge of the Volga, which in turn depends on rainfall levels in its vast catchment basin. Precipitation is related to variations in the amount of North Atlantic depressions that reach the interior, and they in turn are affected by cycles of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus levels in the Caspian sea relate to atmospheric conditions in the North Atlantic thousands of miles to the north and west. These factors make the Caspian Sea a valuable place to study the causes and effects of global climate change.
The last short-term sea-level cycle started with a sea-level fall of 3 m (9.84 ft) from 1929 to 1977, followed by a rise of 3 m (9.84 ft) from 1977 until 1995. Since then smaller oscillations have taken place.
Potential environmental hazards in the Caspian Sea Region. Oil slicks glittering on the surface of the sea and thousands of hectares of soil penetrated by oil leaking from abandoned wells are just part of the pollution that people living around the Caspian Sea must endure. In addition there are various industries, particularly chemicals and mining, large-scale irrigated farming and untreated household waste. Combined with the effects of the oil, all these forms of pollution have a serious impact on the well-being of humans and wildlife.
Modern human society is weak in the prevention of the Caspian Sea level hesitations. Nevertheless all the protection measures which should be done on the coast of the Caspian Sea are directed to the being rendered harmless of the destructive force of the Caspian Sea and the damage done by it.
Result.
Azerbaijan is at risk of a range of natural disasters. Earthquakes, landslides, and floods that struck the country over the past decade have reinforced the need to accelerate disaster- management capacities within the country. The capital city of Baku suffered from a destructive landslide and a major earthquake, measuring 6 on the Richter Scale, both in the year 2000. The earthquake was the first to hit the capital for many decades and it revealed flaws in the national disaster management system. The recent disasters have demonstrated a need for a viable approach to disaster reduction. UNDP provided training for civil officials, yet this training was an initial step in assisting civil emergency reform.
At the same time in order to insure the Ministry of Extraordinary Cases beginning its activity and the a great number of insurance companies with the personnel who has large profile with large knowledge about natural calamity, the Republic Cabinet of Ministers decided the proper decisions in order to insure the personnel preparation who has profound knowledge about the natural calamity in the faculty of Geography of Baku State University with the purpose of insuring.
GIS aided operations will be conducted in following order. At first stage digital mapping model is designed which gives comprehensive description of relief and hydrographs of residential areas of Azerbaijan. For its forming, database is created for each vector floor, subsequent to creation of initial vector floor of map objects in map.info system. At third stage subject maps are set which refers to objects investigated upon the very database. Geo-information model of natural disaster ravaged territories and geo-information models of natural disaster impacts on residential areas and economic fields are perfect examples for subject maps.

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Человек и будущее Земли

С позицией автора трудно не согласиться и в плане техногенной опасности, происходящей от человека, и духовной - грозящей самому человеку. Несмотря на описательный характер статьи, в ней чётко прослеживаются и предложения, и мероприятия по предотвращению кактастроф. Многое, о чём пишет автор, касается не только отдельно взятого региона, но и сопредельных территорий.
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