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The aim of this paper is to develop the theoretical framework for assessing the potential of the process of international transfer of technologies and their practical testing by constructing a neural network. Analyzed the current trends and approaches to assessing the potential transfer and proposed classification potentials in the process of technology transfer according to the differentiation of technology and its properties and features of the process of its transfer. The algorithm estimates the efficiency of transfer of high technology based on the prediction consumption trends.
Keywords: assessment, high technology, innovation, international technology transfer, model, potential.
Целью данной работы является разработка теоретических основ оценки потенциала процесса международного трансфера технологий и их практическая апробация с помощью построения нейронной сети. Проанализированы существующие тенденции и подходы к оценке потенциала трансфера и предложена классификация потенциалов при процессе трансфера технологий на основе дифференциаций технологий и их свойств, а также особенностей процесса ее передачи. Разработан алгоритм оценки эффективности трансфера высоких технологий на основе прогнозирования потребительских тенденций.
Ключевые слова: оценка, высокие технологии, инновации, международный трансфер технологий, модель, потенциал.
The experience of developed countries shows that it is the market of high technologies and their distribution within the country, as well as promotion on foreign markets give these countries the economic benefits and social stability. Our country has a number of areas in the development and use of advanced technology is world-level (aerospace, health, creating new materials etc.).
Among the most important mechanisms of development is innovative technology transfer, which is a multidimensional process that promotes the use of an innovation. Technology transfer begins during the development of an innovation, continues through its dissemination, and extends into its early implementation. This process requires multiple stakeholders and resources, and involves activities related to the translation and adoption of an innovation. Technology transfer is designed to accelerate the diffusion of an innovation (Figure 1).
Figure 1 – ATTC Network Model of Technology Transfer in the Innovation Process
High technology is a priority for developed nations. Now on the market of high-tech products leaders are the most developed countries – U.S., Japan, EU countries, especially Western Europe countries, which control 80% of the market and have the 46 macro-technologies . Developing countries or emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have a greater potential for development. Surplus resources and above all cheap labor while importing technology allows developed countries to show GDP growth rate reaching over 10%. Other countries due to limited resources must use an optimization strategy, choosing the most effective within the selected development priorities.
However, if economic agents face a considerable risk in foreign trade in the traditional areas and sectors, participation in high respects is more risky and requires considerable analytical work to prevent possible losses. Key direction in these estimates is the evaluation of the potential of technology. Generally accepted that the first event in the technology transfer should be technology audit – objective assessment of the potential of innovation as an object of technology transfer.
The choice of evaluation criteria depends on the purpose of the audit process and can be quite varied, depending on the industry sector of the company, the specific conditions of an economic and social environment. In general, the new innovative technology can affect different aspects of existence and work as a society, and this particular company, so the accents, and the relative weight of the evaluation criteria of technology can vary significantly. In the case of high technology capacity assessment becomes much more complicated because of the complex in their nature.
We believe that is also an effective differentiation of technological and commercial potential of the technology (Table 1), which allows to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the various stages of the innovation process, because the acquired technology can be modified. High technologies are innovative both in terms of products as well as the processes. International trade in high technology products are mainly used to improve production conditions: 52% of this trade is intermediate products, 42% – equipment and 6% – final product, ready for consumption .
Analysis of scientific studies evaluating transfer, allowed us to identify the following items is even possible to estimate the direction of the process for high-tech:
- potential of technology (related to the potential of the recipient) – its ability to innovate impact on growth of public goods, the quality characteristics of the full range of human activities (social, economic, production, management, information, and otherwise). In this case, the most effective in our view is to assess the relative efficiency of technology (Figure 2);
Table 1 – Technology Assessment for Technology Transfer
Technology (Technical) Considerations
Describing the technology
Assessing the technical impacts of the technology and potential risks
Classifying the technology
Identifying the present stage of the technology development
Identifying the remaining requirements for completion of the development of the technology
Comparing the technology with competing technology
Identifying potential commercial applications of the technology
Identifying potential markets for commercial applications of the technology
Identifying potential technology acquirers
Estimating commercialization related costs
Pricing the technology
Developing a business plan for commercial assessment of the technology
- recipient’s potential – ability to use technology effectively (research organizations and enterprises (intensive production) involved in the creation and innovation in their promotion to the consumer. These are primarily the fundamental science, science and technology and enterprise technology-intensive industry sector with cooperative and supply infrastructure);
- potential of transfer process – the consistency of the process and the transmit (license, support through engineering and consulting services);
Figure 2 – Various outlooks regarding technology valuation 
- potential of the national innovation system to use technology effectively (level of standards compared with the recipient, the level of development of productive forces) or bearing capacity of the sociocultural environment, creating a demand for innovation and ensure their implementation creating or improving socio-economic conditions, the development of science, education, culture, and democratic institutions, economy and society;
- consumption potential to use technology product effective.
So, all these issues can be combined into two areas: the potential of the technology and the potential of the process of its transfer which allows to achieve an optimal state (Figure 3). And the task is to develop an algorithm to evaluation in the case of high technology.
Potential of transfer must be evaluated depending on policy to increase their innovative capacities must be targeted to meet the needs of a variety of user groups, have different objectives, and use multiple approaches and tools. For example, study of Bustamante and Bowra (2002) gives next differentiation variants of SMEs policies :
1) for high-tech SMEs (technology developers or lead technology users), the most important goals are to promote the development of the private venture capital industry and associated services, and to adjust accordingly the management and objectives of public R&D granting programs;
2) for the vast majority of SMEs (technology followers), novel technology and innovation policies should better address their needs, especially with regards to: awareness of new ideas and technologies; and incentives and institutional frameworks for improving collaborations within networks and clusters, including local technical centers or technical colleges.
Figure 3 – Technology Transfer Model Based on S-curve: a – general view; b – model of best technology choice
Contextual analysis is also possible, such as combating climate change requires the large scale diffusion of clean energy technologies. For this reason, enhancing technology development and transfer has been a key objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since its inception , which uses such principles as:
1. Build on priority progress. The identification and setting of priorities should build on efforts and results of previous and other assessments. It is important that a synthesis of the various relevant assessments be undertaken to tease out identified specific priorities;
2. Focus on value-addition. The tech priority areas should be value adding. Mechanism should not focus on those issues, areas and activities that can and should be undertaken by national governments using their own domestic financial, institutional and technical resources.
Also potential can be considered with the cooperation between the private and the public sector. For example, Japan Science and Technology Agency within the program A-STEP (Adaptable & Seamless Technology Transfer Program through Target-driven R&D)  supports collaborative industry–academia R&D based on the results of high-quality basic research (research output, IP, etc.) to ensure that the benefits of research are passed onto Japanese society. Depending on the R&D phase and objectives of each particular project, A-STEP combines the optimal R&D funding and period to enable seamless pursuit of medium- to long-term R&D. Through this approach, the program aims to bridge the gaps between academic research results and industry to realize highly effective and efficient innovation. All fields of natural science A-STEP comprises 10 types of support at the feasibility study (FS) stage and full-scale R&D stage. FS-stage: investigation of technology transfer potential; validation of potential as a technology seed that will meet the needs of companies; and validation of potential to become the technology seed for a university-launched start-up company. Full-scale R&D stage: R&D in preparation for the establishment of a university-launched start-up venture that aims for the practical application of technology seeds; and R&D during the practical verification and testing phase through joint R&D.
For high-level technologies we propose to use approach, based on the presence of numerous effects for receiving of industries. The dynamics of sales of products based on technology (St) can be approximated by the following relationship (1):
where T – the boundary of the projection period; t – current year; PT – value due to achieving parity in the international market the technology in yearT, namely the achievement of specific share of domestic products in the total volume of products sold on the world market of high technologies (the figure must be specified), p – probability of achieving of parity in the international market the technology in yearT, q – the denominator of the exponential describing the average growth rate in sales of domestic production of critical technologies.
The forecast and estimations should consider the potential impact of high technology in wide areas. As an example, a methodology to assess only the market of nanotechnology:
World GDP • Share of products using nanotech in world GDP • Percentage of materials • Share of nanotechnology in materials + Market size of breakthrough technologies + Market size of nanotech products in semiconductors + Other intersectoral tech effects
Evaluation of socio-economic effects are even more complex. As a result of the potential complexity of the transfer process, technology transfer organizations are often multidisciplinary.
New technologies are generally the driving force behind the development and launch of new products, processes and services. That is why it is so important for companies to identify the technologies and trends that are relevant from an early stage and to correctly assess their potential.
Given the fact that the transfer is in most cases through innovation and investment processes within the the projects, we propose to use such a tool for analyzing as neural networks. Investment attractiveness and innovation activity, and the system of investment potential and investment risks are the neurons of the first layer network investment climate and investment attractiveness of neurons is the second level and innovation potential – third level of the neuron network. Based on the context of the study of levels this list may be expanded.
In models of neural networks are different types of activation functions, whose form is also driven by the tasks of each individual study and the required properties of the neural network.
Thus, the integral evaluation potential can be obtained as the estimated value of activation function neural network. The proposed estimation model can be used for research and investment processes other objects of the complex nature – other intersectoral complexes and businesses. Using the proposed neural network model will allow to estimate the status of transfer and correct mechanisms of managing innovative activities in order to maximize efficiency.
The results of calculations allowed to specify the parameters of the model. According to the calculations of a set of indicators that determine the potential represented by variables, which coincide with the results of our previous studies (numbers have been changed): X1 – market potential; X2 – feasibility of technology; X3 – resource providing of technology; X4 – product specifications based on technology; Y – expected profit, based on tech properties.
For specification of parameters of the development model we use a neural network, the generation of which was performed by means of neurosimulator Neuro Pro 0.25, among the main functions of which is to assess the significance of the studied parameters of the network, which we use to refine the model parameters. Using a tool Neuro Pro 0.25 are built trained and tested 10 networks of various configurations (single and double layer) with the requirements of neurosimulator and fundamental theoretical principles of neural networks. Based on the survey data trained network define variants of development based on the technology (Table 2).
Table 2 – Forecasted Development Options by Analyzing of Neural Network
In Table 2 variants of development are given and the best is one that does not include recession in specific indicators and growth of key indicators – Variant 1.
Received options increase production based on forecast models can be used for decision making. Offered technology improves the potential of forecasting by:
- identification of significant factors of production in the economy of the region;
- identification of promising productions («growth points»);
- tracking of structural changes in the economy.
To maximize effects of the international transfer of technology we offer to consider it in the context of evolutionary software development and high-tech industries to overcome technological backwardness, which must be consistent with socio-economic development and export strategy:
- audit of the existing technological capacity;
- audit of the potential export of providing a competitive growth of finished goods and services, including through the use of borrowed technologies;
- formation of an effective system of measures that promote high-tech exports;
- integration into the international system of technology transfer and innovation and technology cooperation across international clusters and other forms of integration. Cluster strategy states that parties shall seek to take advantages of knowledge spill-overs, especially in the early stages of the industrial lifecycle.
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