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Burmistrova Alevtina Anatolevna, candidate of of economics, doctoral candidate
Championship participant: the National Research Analytics Championship - "Russia";
In this article one of the main resources of Russian economic development – human capital is considered. It reveals the problems of its functioning and promising direction of development.
Keywords: innovation development, human capital, human potential, socially- demographical potential.
Important condition of strategic innovations development of Russia realization is activation of human factor.
Successful solving of grand problems, which are facing Russia, depends on human capital exactly.
In condition of general uniting target – Russia’s revival, the problem of qualitative and quantitative growth of exactly this human capital should be solved.
Now successful USA’s and top European countries development paradigm is forming and improving on theoretical and practical human capital’s base.
On the basis of the human capital’s theory Sweden modernized its economy and got back in two thousand’s years top positions in the world economy.
Finland managed to move from mainly raw economic to innovation economy for the short historically period of time. And create its own competitive high technologies without refusing the deepest processing its main nature riches - a forest. Gets the first place in the economic competitively rating in a whole.
More over, Finns created their from innovation technologies and products from processing forest into products with high added value’s profits.
They didn’t store theirs profits in a form of reserves in the USA and European banks, but invested them into their people improving their health, education, increasing their infrastructure, human capital and economic, new technologies.
One reason of earlier unsuccessful attempts of Russian modernization is uneven, unbalanced development of individual spheres of socially – demographical life, including undercounted components of socially – demographical Russian potential’s development.
Socially –demographical potential of country innovated development is a balanced system of qualitative and quantitative population development’s characteristics which represents: 1) the main resource and innovation development’s base; 2) the main stimulus of innovation development, which represents growing stable demand for innovation.
A socially – demographical potential’s development of innovation economy means:
Indicators of socially- demographical country’s potential may be:
-a total birthrate, at least, 2.2 (provides natural reproduction of the population);
- Life must be not below 75 years( achieved by developed countries);
- The Human Development Index(HDI) must be not below 0.93(the minimum for the developed countries);
- the average monthly salary employed in education, health care, science and scientific services must be two times bigger than the average by country;
- The funds rate on income must be not above 10;
- Public expenditure on education must be not lower 4-5% of Gross domestic product(GDP);
-for the healt care must be not lower 6% GDP;
- the share of researchers in the total economically active population must be not lower 1%;
- Number of Internet users must be not lower 50% of the total population.
The population of Russia has been steady shrinking from 1990 years. In 1991 year population of Russia was 148.3 million people, in 2000 year it was 146.9 million, in 2009 and 2010 years it was 141.9 million people. According to the forecast of Russian statistics (average, the most likely various) the population of Russia will decrease and further (despite the planned high immigration rate -300 thousand people a year, which achieving with nowadays politic is problematically).
At this moment further reduction in the population to a certain extent is constrained by favorable demographic structure, formed as a result of high fertility in 80ss.
The last circumstance resulted in the emergence nowadays multiple marriage contingent, which explains the small automatic birth rate increase in recent years. However, this demographic stability is being expired: at some estimation, its influence will last not longer than 2012, after that its quantity will be dramatically decreasing.
So according to the Institute of Social and Political Studies, the population of the Russian federation, while maintaining current levels of fertility and mortality, may 2025 be reduced from today’s 141.9 million people to 122 million people. However, this projection is noted that a further increase in mortality and fertility decline will decrease the number of Russians even more, and by the end of the period amounted to 113.9 million people.
With the further development process, Russia’s population by the mid 21st century, reduced by various estimates 30 to 60 million people, that is, an amount of from 20 to 40 percent of its current size.
In this regard, many demographers say about the inevitable demographic catastrophe that threatens our country. A country with a declining population is dying. And with such a vast territory as ours, it is also a country in which more land, drop out of the economic and social revolution. And now we are already seeing an excessive contraction of the European population centers. In the Central Federal District over a quarter of Russians live in the four percent of the territory. Decline in the population of Russia is mortality. Demographers are aware of only three ways to reduce depopulation:
Most professionals in this country and in Europe and the U.S., according to an irreversible depopulation and increasing the birth rate to a level that ensures necessary for the replacement of generations – is unlikely. It is therefore proposed to stop the decline in the population and reduce the expense of mortality.
Thus, specialists of the Civilization and Regional Studies offer to flight demographic crisis to focus on the reduction of mortality.
In turn, the authors of the UN report human development in Russia allege that in our country a major source of filling labor shortages caused by the demographic decline, is the internal and external migration, and only competent immigration policy will allow Russia to avoid the harmful effects of depopulation.
By European standards, the birth rate in Russia can not be called extremely as low fertility observed in many developed countries of the West(and not only in the West in Hong Kong, for example, 7.1%(births per thousand people per year), and in modern Russias-10.5 %)). However, the mortality is the primary source of depopulation of Russia.
In the new century in most developed countries, such non-productive sectors of the economy as education and science, announced as the top priority of the state . “Science in the 20th century has become crucial in the life of human society. Determined its developed today is largely the place of any country in the world civilization.” Great role in the knowledge society is Education.” With the modernization of society – emphasizes E. Tarasov, - one of the priorities is the task of updating the whole quality of the education system as a real sign of the information society, and the key is investment in human capital.”
The quality of human capital is determined by scientific and educational complex, the health system, standard of living, culture, mentality of the country. At present Russia has witnessed a sharp decline in the level of education, low investment in science, so that there is an outflow of human capital abroad.
Need to understand, that Russia is it’s national wealth, which is the main factor of countries economical growth. Losses of scientific potential couldn’t be fast compensated, because of big lag of knowledge transfer from the older generation to the younger.
The problem is underestimation of human and scientific capital. The financing of science is unreasonably low. If our country remains a country, which cut financing of scientific research(it is 3 times lower, than in USSR) we would never catch up Europe and the USA. If Israel spends on them more than 5% GDP, than we only 1%. We should pay attention to the low level of wages, pensions, significant differentiation of incomes shows significant underestimation of human capital. Especially problems are serious, which are associated with a significant reduction in funding of research and development, education, health care. For the last 20 years in Russia has been a strong depreciation of human capital- experience and knowledge of scientists, engineers and specialists.
“Brain drain” is a bit problem. The scale of “brain drain” is one of countries intellectual potential indicators. Traditionally it is considered that “brain drain” is bad, that in this country scientists and specialists are not claimed, but their market price is high, when they get good positions in other countries. Experts estimate that for the last 20 years 100-250 thousands of people, who are engaged in scientific research work, leaved Russia. Usually the mow important for scientific and technologic development specialists emigrate: physics and mathematics (53%), biology and biotechnologists(27%), chemists(12%), representatives of the humanities(9%). Scientific workers leave in their most productive age ( 49% from the number of migrant RAS scientists are younger than 40 years), the most qualified which work actively and publish their works, 16% of them are doctors and 56% are PhD. At the present time according to the Russian Academy of Sciences 16 thousand ex-our scientists with doctorate from all 25 thousand Russian doctors work in the USA.
The main reasons of “brain drain” are known: poor resource base (equipment and technical support); inadequate attention to R & D from the side of society; low probability of succeeding in their own activities; limited possibilities for welcome researches to the team, which are recognized by the world community; inadequate salary; poor integration of basic science with the public and private sectors; small R & D sector ( or its absence) in enterprises both state and private; great uncertainty in social and economic opportunities.
Unfortunately state is not able to provide scientists with worthy material conditions and the prospects for further growth yet. All these lead to lack of incentives for young people to work in the sectors of the economy which focus on knowledge. Lower scientists` salary in comparison with other economy sectors leads to the situation, when young specialists work outside their specialty in higher paid occupations.
According to researching, about 80% of students from many universities do not connect their future activity with science. In students` opinion, it is necessary to raise the level of scientists` salary and raise prestige of science in society in order to attract graduates to choose work of the scientist.
There is a problem of knowledge continuity in conditions of low amount of influx of young people into science. First solution to this problem should be achieved by stimulating the inflow of young people into science, creating conditions for productive work of scientists and specialists of older age groups and raising salary people engaged in R & D. The problem of knowledge continuity will remain open till the problem of science financing is solved.
The above problems lead to the fact that in the near future the Russian high-technology enterprises may face the problem of the lack of an appropriate level of qualification. Based on this important strategic area of the enterprises should be the accumulation of intellectual capacity, staff development, training of highly qualified personnel.
The lag in science and high technology leads to delays in related sectors of the economy, and makes a wish of more developed countries to limit the provision of scientific and technical information in these areas. The result is a weakening of the economic, technological, national security. Loss of intellectual capacity, caused by brain drain, reducing the number of trained professionals for working in high-tech companies, as well as the outflow of young professionals in other sectors of the economy because of low funding increased the threat of scientific and technological security in the country.
All of the above leads us to the disappointing conclusion that Russia in the coming years have to solve unique and unrivaled historical analogies task - to ensure economic growth in population reduction. demographic component of the Russian human capacity in the foreseeable future will not be able to act as a major source of social and economic development of country. Consequently, the only and the main competitive advantage of Russia may be not the quantity but the quality of its people. And the initial attention should be paid to him.